The recent BC Budget projects a deficit of $13.3 billion for the coming year. As part of the Budget process, most branches of government, including the BC Liquor Distribution Branch (LDB), provide updated fiscal plans for the coming years. The LDB has posted its Service Plan for 2026-2028 here.
The Service Plan predicts a challenging environment for liquor sales in BC over the next few years with flat revenue and increased operating costs. This will have significant consequences for the government revenue that derives from liquor sales. Indeed, the annual LDB contribution to government revenue is projected to decline significantly in the coming years, down substantially from a pandemic era high of $1.193 billion in the 2021/22 fiscal year to just $847.3 million in the year ending in 2029.
The table below shows comparisons for the 2021/22 fiscal year, projected numbers for the current 2025/26 fiscal year, and for the 2028/2029 fiscal year. It also adds per capita amounts of liquor revenue for each year based on government population projections.
| BC | 2021/22 | 2025/26 | 2028/29 | Change 2022-2029 |
| Revenue | 3.751b | 3.620b | 3.742b | 0% |
| Net Income | 1.193b | 950m | 847.3m | -29% |
| Per Capita Amount | 222.69 | 168.41 | 151.38 | -32% |
For British Columbia, and if the projections are correct, the table shows fairly flat gross sales over a 7 year period (which would mean a decline in volume), with a decline in net income of -29% in absolute dollars and -32% in per capita revenue. During the same time period, operating expenses rose by 34% from $508m to $680m. For comparison, and for the 6 year period ending in 2028, Alberta is projecting smaller declines of -6.7% (absolute dollars) and -19% (per capita).
The Service Plan indicates that some of the contributing causes to these declines are:
- BCGEU strike action in the 2025/26 fiscal year
- Removal of U.S. liquor products from the LDB system
- Reduced consumer demand for alcohol including health and lifestyle concerns
- General economic conditions
- Decline in immigration levels
- Increased expenses including those related to collective agreements
For more background information on the above, please see my earlier articles: Lower Consumption = Lower Liquor Tax Revenue and Liquor Markups are the Shackles That Are Impeding Canadian Wine Businesses.